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The Consequence Library

How records are made and graded

The methodology is published so readers can see how records are selected, sourced, classified and updated.

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Source standard

Material factual claims must meet the published source threshold. Every load-bearing fact in a record needs either one Tier-1 source or two independent Tier-2 sources. Tier 1 is a court, a regulator, a legislature, a royal commission, a national investigator, a dual-party forensic disclosure, or a first-party account by a named party to the event. Tier 2 is established trade or business press with named reporting. Tier 3, which includes vendor incident trackers and marketing research, is used to find candidates and never as ground truth for a published fact. Sources are labelled on each record as Primary for Tier 1, Secondary for Tier 2, and Cross-reference for catalogue entries.

Where a material claim rests on a single interested source, disputed attribution or incomplete public evidence, the limitation is stated directly in the record.

Three kinds of statement

Confirmed fact. Information established by an authoritative source or corroborated across qualifying independent sources.

Source-stated cause. An explanation or allegation attributed to the person, organisation, investigator or publication making it.

Architectural analysis. Regulayer’s analysis of the authority and control structure surrounding the event. It is identified as analysis and is not presented as an adjudicated fact.

Gap codes

Every record carries one primary gap, the failure without which the consequence does not occur as documented, and any number of secondary gaps. A primary gap must be supported by a Tier-1 or Tier-2 source. Secondary gaps may be analysis and are shown as such.

CodeGapMeaning
AauthorityNo legitimate authority for the action
Bstale-authorityAuthority outlived its grant: the instruction changed, the permission did not
Cpre-action controlNo gate between the decision and the execution
Dpermission / tool-usePermission, credential or tool scope exceeded the purpose
Ehuman reviewHuman review absent, nominal, or structurally impossible
FevidenceNo contemporaneous, trustworthy record of what happened
Ggovernance inside the systemThe system governed itself: the rules lived inside the model context
Hfail-stopNo working stop path, or stop signals ignored
IprovenanceOrigin or chain of outputs, instructions or data unverifiable
Jnetwork dependencyFailure propagated across a network or dependency boundary

Severity

Severity describes the documented consequence that occurred. It does not measure the theoretical capability of the system or the seriousness of an event that did not occur.

TierThreshold, any one suffices
S1Death or serious injury; population-scale rights or benefit harm; entity-ending outcome; loss at or above $100m
S2Multi-million-dollar loss; systemic denial of care or benefits affecting thousands; company shutdown; criminal resolution
S3Material data loss or outage; regulatory action; binding precedent with small direct damages
S4Contained harm; small monetary loss; rapid remediation
S5No realised external harm; controlled demonstration or pre-exploitation patch

Confidence, graded twice

Records carry two confidence grades, because the two questions come apart. A breach can be certain while the claim that AI drove it rests on one company's word.

TierMeaning
C1Adjudicated or regulator-grade: court opinion, regulator order, royal commission, national investigator, or dual-party forensic disclosure
C2Multi-source corroborated: independent outlets plus named first-party statements, consistent on the facts
C3Single-source or vendor-asserted: one credible source, a self-report, or a vendor disclosure without independent validation
C4Disputed: material facts contested by a named party. Both accounts are published side by side and neither is adjudicated

What is never published

No preventability flags. No claim that any control or product would have prevented an outcome. No vendor scores, rankings or comparisons. No record below the source standard, however useful the gap would be to fill. Candidates that fail the standard are held, and the reason is published with them.

Updating and corrections

Records are reviewed when material litigation, regulatory, investigative or disclosure developments occur. Material changes and corrections are dated in the record history.

To report an error, write to hello@regulayer.com with the record name and the source you believe should be reviewed.